United States and Chinese trade relations appear to have hit a new low after White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said that the trade deal was “over” on Fox News last night. Navarro later walked back his comments and said that his comments were taken out of context and, “was simply speaking to the lack of trust we now have of the Chinese Communist Party after they lied about the origins of the China virus and foisted a pandemic upon the world.”
This morning, WTI crude oil prices traded as low as $52.13/barrel, the lowest level since October of last year. With threats of the Coronavirus spreading, travel and trade have become a factor in this sell off. With the fear of the disease spreading until there is a vaccine, traders forecast travel will be subdued, meaning oil demand will decrease and thus so do oil prices.
As the end of this week winds down and people prepare for the holidays next week, light liquidity will most likely be the name of the game in our energy markets. Light liquidity means trading volume is lower than normal which is to be expected during this time of year. Therefore, the bid/ask spreads are wider. Meaning that if the computer-driven trading houses decide to either buy or sell a lot of volume, the market can move violently in one direction rather quickly. What does this mean for our industry? This means that our customers can be very opportunistic especially if we see a retracement in prices after this rally we’ve seen since the beginning of December.
The volatility of the China-United States trade war may finally be slowing down. Only a few days after agreeing to phase one of a new trade deal, China has announced a one-year tariff exemption on six chemical and oil derivatives, a positive sign that tensions are easing, and progress is being made. These exemptions become effective on December 26, 2019 and are set to expire on December 25, 2020.
President Trump recently threatened to tax, nearly $300 billion dollars of Chinese products, by 10%. The already volatile oil market, seems to have room for some extra volatility. The volatility would largely cycle around China’s response to the U.S. tariffs. If China responds by purchasing oil from Iran, analysts speculate crude could rapidly approach $30 per barrel. Trump could impose the sanctions on the Chinese imports as soon as September 1st. Trump also threatened that he could raise the tariff, if no progress has been made towards a trade deal.
President Trump stated Thursday night that the United States would begin a series of escalating tariffs on all Mexican imports beginning June 10th, unless Mexico and United States lawmakers take immediate steps to stop the flow of illegal immigration into the United States. The tariffs on imports would start at 5% in June and increase to 15% by August 1st, then to 20% by September 1st and then raised to 25% by October 1st.
The oil market is mixed this morning as it continues to look for direction and weighs the same news items of the past few months. Those issues continue to be OPEC cuts, U.S. / China trade dispute, concern over a global economic slowdown and increasing U.S. crude production.
The U.S. and China conclude their two-day trade talks in Beijing today with President Trump tweeting this morning “Talks with China are going very well!” This tweet and word that China had their top trade official, Liu He, attend the talks early this week have boosted equity and oil markets along with it as February WTI trades higher today to $49.42/barrel despite growing U.S. oil production.
Oil prices rose by more than 1 percent on Monday, lifted by optimism that talks could soon resolve the trade war between the United States and China, while supply cuts by major producers also supported the market.
Yesterday, the United States and Mexico settled on new concessions that will make changes to the current North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The hope is to improve upon the U.S. $69-billion trade deficit with Mexico.