According to a global energy industry forecast, oil growth will continue to soar until the 2030’s and climate-damaging emissions will keep climbing until at least 2040. The World Energy Outlook is not only closely watched by the oil industry but also the governments due to its relevance to climate policy. The International Energy Agency said that almost 20% of the growth in last year’s global energy use was “due to hotter summers pushing up demand for cooling and cold snaps leading to higher heating needs.” The Internation Energy Agency (IEA) forecast global oil demand to be 106.4 million barrels per day by 2040 (up from 96.9 million last year).
“Oil demand plateaus post-2030,” said Faith Birol, executive director of the Paris-based agency, which advises most major economies. “Demand growth is robust to 2025, but growth slows to a crawl thereafter.” As countries seek to diversify fossil fuels due to climate change and find renewable-energy sources, there are positive reports for oil producers. As demand slows, depleting oil reserves will still need to be replaced causing prices to rise around $90/bbl by 2030 and $103/bbl by 2040. Fuel-efficient car engines may take out a chunk of demand as well as electric cars. According to reports, U.S. production will reach 20.9 MM bpd in 2025, when its combined exports of crude and refined oil will overtake Saudi Arabia’s. U.S. will account for 85% of the growth in production worldwide to 2030 as its shale-oil boom continues, according to the IEA. More efficient cars and electric vehicles will continue to be the trend going forward but reports indicate continued growth for roughly the next 10 years.