Will Stats Bring It Right Back?

Author: Pam Corn   Date:

Oil prices are on the rise this morning, as traders make their moves in advance of API stats. The expectation is that crude oil and gasoline will show a decrease in inventories from last week. Distillates on the other hand are thought by some to be on the rise (Reuters).

Some analysts are estimating that crude oil has decreased 2.3 million barrels, give or take. Some wonder why the market is not in the green even more so this morning, given the bullish prediction for statistics tonight/ tomorrow (A.P.I. / D.O.E.). To those who are curious why the oil markets aren’t jumping up a large amount quite yet, I will be glad to shed some light.

Reason why market is only up slightly this morning:

  1. Statistics– Due to come out tonight/ tomorrow
  2. Supply– Supply glut lingers
  3. Nigeria and Libya – Oil production is increasing
    1. Libya’s oil production – Rose from 885,000 to 935,000 bpd last week
    2. Nigeria’s exports in August – Predicted to achieve their highest level since March of 2016 (2 million bpd)
  4. Fuel demand – Still relatively weak compared to supply
  5. Rig counts/U.S. Production – Showing no signs of weakness

As of 10:00 a.m., distillates and RBOB are up approximately 1.5 cents, while WTI Crude is sitting slightly below the $44 threshold. If statistics shows big draws on crude and/or refined products, it will be interesting to see how the market reacts. The market has been on the downtrend for weeks now, let’s wait and see if it starts to bounce back.

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