No More Global Oversupply?

Crude has been right up against the perpetual $50 a barrel mark the entire morning. Yesterday, it breached that mark, but ended up settling down to $49.18. As we head into November, let’s take a look at what crude has done the last two months. On September 5th, crude closed at $46.91, and a week later we saw it fall under $45 to a low of $44.52. Since then, the whole month of October has been $5-$8 a barrel above that level. October’s low was $48.35 on October 3rd, and the high was $52.22 on October 19th.

The market is stronger today on both distillates and gasoline, as well as crude. Distillates are up $.0265, gasoline up $.0065, and crude up $.78 as of 12:30 PM EST. This is mainly due to the Venezuelan political situation, strong Asian demand, and a report today from the Saudis stating a possible cut of its near record oil production by 4%. Sticking on the subject of crude cutting, Iran’s exports are projected to fall to a four month low in the month of November to 1.89 mbpd. Right around the same output, Nigeria reveals its output of 1.8 mbpd. The API’s were bearish Tuesday night, but the DOE’s gave some hope to oil bulls yesterday. Overall, OPEC’s decision November 30th will be the next big market mover, but it seems like moving crude prices substantially higher gets more and more difficult in a well supplied global market despite the rhetoric.

Interesting news:

  • U.S. crude inventories have fallen nearly eight weeks in a row
  • The Seaway pipeline remains shutdown, which affects crude builds in the Gulf Coast and backs barrels into Cushing.
  • ConocoPhillips loses $1 billion in Q3
  • Husky reports a Q3 bigger-than-expected loss on weak crude prices
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