Going Down?

Oil prices fell more than 1% yesterday hitting 14 month lows after reports of an increase in U.S. inventories along with surging shale output.

The American Petroleum Institute reported yesterday that U.S. crude supplies rose by 3.5 million barrels last week.   In addition, stats show an increase in gasoline stockpiles by 1.8 million barrels and a decline in distillate inventories by 3.4 million barrels.   Inventory statistics from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) are set to be released later today.   

According to the US Energy information administration, production from the largest shale areas, including the Permian Basin will surpass the previous record of 8 million barrels per day in early 2019.  Current U.S. production is running at 11.7 million barrels per day which is already at record levels and there are expectations that the growth will continue by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2019.   

With such a robust picture on the supply side along with doubt around weakening global economic growth the oil complex elevator continues to point down.

“As usual oil markets are all about the basics of supply and demand, so when excess amounts cross paths with a bearish global growth outlook, it provides an exceedingly bearish signal for oil prices which have only one place to go, and that’s down,” said Stephen Innes, head of Asia Pacific trading at Oanda. “With market struggling for direction oil prices were very prone to shift in risk aversion, but when global growth concerns trigger risk off it’s hugely negatively impactful for oil prices.”

So, when will lower oil prices impact U.S. shale production?   

 “Total U.S. shale oil growth is highly sensitive to WTI prices in the $40-60 range,” Morgan Stanley wrote in a December 13 note. The investment bank said that shale producers are growing more sensitive to prices below $60 but less sensitive to price spikes above $60. “If WTI remains around current levels (~$50/bbl), US growth should start to slow.”

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Shale-Under-Pressure-As-Oil-Falls-Below-50.html

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/futures/oil-prices-slide-past-one-year-lows-as-us-shale-output-tests-new-records-14813544

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/12/18/oil-falls-below-$50-on-oversupply-fears/

Written by:

As Director of Marketing for Guttman Holdings, I lead our advertising, digital marketing, branding, and public relations strategies, and share my expertise to communicate key messaging to all our stakeholders. With my diversified leadership background, I also drive innovation and cutting-edge business practice and results, to generate interest in Guttman Energy, Guttman Renewables, and Source One service offerings.

Guttman Energy Daily Market Update Disclaimer – The information contained in this market update is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however this update could include technical inaccuracies or typographical errors and Guttman Energy does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or reliability of this update. FURTHERMORE, THIS UPDATE IS PROVIDED “AS IS,” WHERE IS, WITH ALL FAULTS AND WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY OR CONDITION OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS, IMPLIED OR STATUTORY. GUTTMAN ENERGY ALSO SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ALL EXPRESS AND IMPLIED WARRANTIES. YOU USE THIS UPDATE AT YOUR SOLE RISK. This update and any view or comment expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted in any way as recommendation or inducement to buy or sell products, commodity futures or options contracts.