Another Ruby Tuesday? Futures Prices in the Red Again

  1. Yesterday saw further declines in the refined products in the front months. January RBOB futures settled down 6.52 cents and the January HO contracts settled down 67 points. Yesterday was also the last trading day for Jan WTI contracts. Trading was therefore very light in the Jan contract, but the Feb contract settled at $35.81 per barrel.
  1. Morgan Stanley published an article about the 2016 outlook for the oil market. It indicated 2016 will most likely see a continued downward pricing trend in all sectors of the oil market, but especially in crude due to the fact that production shows no sign of slowing down. Global production, according to Morgan Stanley, will substantially increase due to Iranian oil exports, increased OPEC production, and the potential peace in Libya (although unlikely). The article goes on to say that demand is also likely to slow down from its 2015 pace.  OPIS also echoed Morgan Stanley’s sentiment: “Fundamentally, there’s not much to indicate a reversal of fortunes anytime in the near future, leaving market watchers wondering where the bottom is.”
  1. Currently the market is down for RBOB, HO and WTI. Although this is a holiday week, the API and EIA data will be released on their normal schedules. It will be interesting to see if the perceived extra holiday demand will substantially change national inventory levels.


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